Week 9: 4-10
The Smartest Thing I Said Last Week:
(oh, who even cares anymore?)
The Dumbest Thing I Said Last Week:
Broncos @ BROWNS -3
Aaaaaand we start Week 10 in an 0-1 hole, because the Broncos beat the Browns last night. I can't figure out either of those teams.
But enough about the pick I got wrong last night; onto the picks I'll be getting wrong on Sunday!
Titans @ BEARS +3
Because the Titans have to lose at some point, and what better time to pick that than a week in which they not only play a first place team on the road, but also a week in which they were featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated? I'll not bet against that powerful curse.
Jaguars @ LIONS +6.5
Things were looking so good for the Jaguars on the evening of October 12th. They had won three of their last four after a shaky start and were heading into their bye week on the strength of a road win over the first place Broncos. Not only that, but after the respite came a stretch of games against the Browns, the Bengals and the Lions, teams whose combined record at the time was 1-14. Life was good.
Then, of course, the Jaguars came out and lost to Cleveland at home and Cincinnati on the road. Will they lose to the suddenly competitive – if still winless – Lions? I don't know. What I do know is that I don't want to give the Jags six-and-a-half points, not with the way they've been playing lately.
RAVENS @ Texans +1
It looked like the Texans were on a roll there for a while; they weren't. They fattened up on the likes of the Dolphins, Lions and Bengals (which, as the Jaguars proved, is not exactly easy, but, still), and then couldn't really hang with the decidedly average Vikings last week.
Normally the smart money won't back a rookie quarterback on the road, but Baltimore's Joe Flacco doesn't make a ton of mistakes. The Ravens' defense, on the other hand, is capable of causing the other team to make plenty of them.
Bills @ PATRIOTS -3.5
The Bills aren't that good. Most teams, if things break just right and they hit a relatively easy chunk in their schedule, can win four games in a row. That's what happened with the Bills, I think, when they started out 4-0 and suckered us all in. They've shown themselves to be pretenders now. And, as I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the Patriots just don't lose two games in a row.
Saints @ FALCONS -1
Big game; the Saints are in last place in the NFC South but, at 4-4, are only two games behind the first-place Panthers. The Falcons are only one game out of first in the same division, but haven't beaten an NFC South opponent yet. Both teams are still alive for the playoffs; the loser of this one will have a tougher road to get there.
Seahawks @ DOLPHINS -8
These two teams have basically just switched places in the NFL hierarchy since last year: the Dolphins are good now, and the Seahawks are hopeless.
PACKERS @ Vikings -2.5
I will not talk myself into thinking that the Vikings have the stuff to get it together and make a playoff run. I will not talk myself into thinking that the Vikings have the stuff to get it together and make a playoff run. I will not talk myself into thinking that the Vikings have the stuff to get it together and make a playoff run. I will not talk myself into thinking that the Vikings have the stuff to get it together and make a playoff run.
I'm not going to set myself up for that sort of a fall.
RAMS @ Jets -9
My heart's not in it this week, folks. You lose ten games a week for like a month straight in your picks column and see how you feel, okay?
PANTHERS @ Raiders +9.5
Colts @ STEELERS -3
I'm not sure it matters this week who plays QB for Pittsburgh; they'll be fine.
Chiefs @ CHARGERS -15.5
You just can't ever be sure whether the Chargers will be great or whether they'll be listless and sloppy. They haven't played a great game in a little while, and they're all rested up from their bye week, so I'll take them. Even though that point spread is ridiculously high.
GIANTS @ Eagles -3
I need to see the Eagles beat another good team before I'm completely convinced.
49ers @ CARDINALS -9.5
The Cardinals start to pull away from the rest of the field in the NFC West. I know; I never in a million years thought we'd ever see anybody write that sentence, either.